Prognosticating 10-31

This weekend brings all the ghouls, goblins, and most importantly, slutty police officers out in full force as college campuses across the nation celebrate Halloween, aka Excuse To Dress Like A Hooker Day.  I have never really been a big Halloween guy, mostly because I am too lazy to get a good costume, but also because Halloween usually falls on a Michigan football Saturday.  The most memorable Halloween moment happened in my first year at Kent State.  Down by 17 with 7 minutes to go against Michigan State, Braylon Edwards decided to single handedly win the game in what is now simply called "The Braylon Game."  I was almost ready to turn the TV off and start the festivities until reserve FB/TE Brian Thompson recovered an onside kick that reinvigorated my hopes.  The rest is history on that one.

So what will this Halloween bring to the world of college football this year?  I'm trying something a little different here this week, as I will be picking 5 games against the spread and keeping a total to be updated through the rest of the year.  I always like to think that I could make a good sports better, now we will find out.  Onto the picks! (Home team will be CAPS)

IOWA (+17.5) vs. Indiana


I really hate that Iowa is starting to get national title talk.  The absolute worst scenario for the Big Ten would be for an undefeated Iowa team to sneak through the rest of their Big Ten schedule, into the National Title game against Florida, Texas, or Bama, and then receive the inevitable 35 point beatdown.  Iowa is not that good.  Do not get me wrong; Iowa is a good football team.  However, if they are put up against any of the three teams I mentioned above they would be overwhelmed like Dane Sanzenbacher in the NFL.  Iowa simply does enough to get by.  I have already heard comparisons of Iowa 09' to Ohio State 02'.  One huge difference: NFL talent.  That Buckeye team was loaded with NFL talent, while this Iowa team trots out a bunch of overachievers who do not make mistakes.  I like Iowa to win this game, but I will take a very improved Indiana team to cover the 17.5.

Penn State (+17) at NORTHWESTERN


This Penn State team will be trouble for the rest of the Big Ten as the year goes on.  They are starting to get healthy, with All-American LB Sean Lee rejoining Navarro Bowman and That Guy With The Awesome Mustache  to make a very formidable linebacking core for Linebacker U.  The offense got on track last week against Michigan, and Darryl Clark is showing signs of being the best QB in the Big Ten again.  I think Penn State runs the table the rest of the way out, and will be in Pasadena for the second straight year.  I like them to cover here against Northwestern, riding the momentum they gained last week with that spanking they gave Michigan in the Big House.

USC (+3) at OREGON


This one is going to be insane.  Last time USC played in Autzen Stadium, the Duck crowd set a national record for decibel level in a stadium.  I fully expect that crowd to match the intensity, as this game is essentially the Pac-10 title game.  The game will depend on how QB Matt Barkley responds to this crowd.  A huge advantage for him will have been to gone into Ohio Stadium and won earlier in the year.  Make no mistake though, Autzen is not Ohio Stadium; it's better.  Oregon has the best home field advantage in the entire nation, and the Ducks will be fired up and sporting some crazy new uniform design.  That being said, I do not think Oregon has the "Ducks" to compete with USC right now.  I like USC to win the game outright on the strength of a big day by WR Ronald Johnson.

OHIO STATE (+44) vs. New Mexico State


The Buckeyes get their cream puff for the year, as the mighty New Mexico State Aggies roll into Columbus.  This game (like the Delaware State game for Michigan) is the unfortunate result of the Big Ten refusing to go to a round robin schedule, while still having to add the 12th game.  I expect no trouble for the Buckeyes in this one, as they will simply try to stay injury free.  That 44 point spread is a tough one to call for a Jim Tressel coached team.  I am going to take NEW MEXICO STATE to cover the 44 point spread with a late touchdown against the scrubs.

Michigan (+7) at ILLINOIS


This game will swing Michigan's season one way or the other.  With a loss, the distinct possibility of 5-7 comes into play with remaining games against Purdue, at Wisconsin, and home against Ohio State.  Illinois put one on Michigan last year, with Juice Williams having a typical spread QB against a Michigan defense day.  However, Juice has struggled this year, and will split some time with pocket passing QB whose name escapes me now, but is much less scary than Juice Williams.  The Illini play-action passing game is what scares me in this one, as our safeties have been less than stellar against this all year.  If Michigan can avoid giving up the big play in the passing game, than I think they can stifle this Illinois offense.  Offensively, Michigan must establish a consistent running game and AVOID NEGATIVE PLAYS.  These plays have killed Michigan in the last couple games, with holding calls, illegal formations, and 3 yard losses effectively killing drives.  Also, the receivers need to get rid of their inner Brian Ceraldi's and catch the damn ball.  That being said, I think Michigan comes out and takes care of business against a reeling Illini squad, covering the spread and winning  by a couple touchdowns.

That does it for this post, hope everyone has a good Halloween weekend.  After Saturday, only 21 days until The Game.  Start getting pumped, and...

NRTTS
Coach Deuce